Saturday, September 4, 2021

UK data tables on September 3 say delta causes less mortality and less % of admissions than alpha or beta.

Below I link to a report with the UK's up to date Covid  information which provides: 
  1. cumulative case counts for each variant
  2. mortality rates for each of 2 age groups by variant, 
  3. hospitalization rates for those presenting to the ER with each variant, 
  4. and other information including vaccinations

"SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation in England 

Technical briefing 22, 3 September 2021" 

You can see that mortality due to delta in the older age group (over 50 years) is about half that of alpha and beta-caused mortality, and mortality in the under 50 group is less than half what it for alpha and beta.  

On pages 15-20 (Table 4) we see the following.  I feel obliged to use the odd inclusion and exclusion data ((I) for inclusion and (E) for exclusion) used by the authors, as described below:

                   % admitted from ER  (E)           (I)           Mortality rate, overall

alpha  < 50 years                          1.0%        1.4%             0.1%

alpha  > 50                                    5.3%        8.6%             4.8%

beta   < 50                                    1.0%         1.5%             0.2%

beta.  > 50                                    4.2%          9.0%            4.2%

delta  < 50                                    0.7%          1.2%            0.0%

delta  > 50                                    2.8%          6.2%            2.3%

Below are the odd inclusion and exclusion criteria used in the report.  But it really doesn't matter which you use, for delta is milder using either, both in terms of deaths and in terms of percent hospitalized from the ER.

# Inclusion: Including cases with the same specimen and attendance dates 

‡ Exclusion: Excluding cases with the same specimen and attendance dates. Cases where specimen date is the same as date of emergency care visit are excluded to help remove cases picked up via routine testing in healthcare settings whose primary cause of attendance is not COVID-19. This underestimates the number of individuals in hospital with COVID-19 but only includes those who tested positive prior to the day of their emergency care visit. Some of the cases detected on the day of admission may have attended for a diagnosis unrelated to COVID-19. ^ Total deaths in any setting (regardless of hospitalisation status) within 28 days of positive specimen date.

On page 11 the report claims that the risk of hospitalization is greater for delta (which is shown to be false from the data in table 4) but the report cites other data (which it fails to include) to support its questionable point: 

"The crude analysis indicates that the proportion of Delta cases who present to emergency care is greater than that of Alpha, but a more detailed analysis of 43,338 COVID-19 cases indicates that the risk of hospitalisation among Delta cases is 2.26 times greater compared to Alpha (Twohig and others, 2021 )."

While the proportion of Covid patients who present to the ER with delta appears be greater, this could be a function of all the fearmongering about the delta strain.  

The data presented, OTOH, are reassuring about delta mortality and hospitalization rates.  The data are incredibly reassuring about young people:  those under 50. Only 0.03% have died (my calculation, 3/10,000 cases) which is counted as 0% in Table 4 becauses the Tble includes one less decimal place. A considerably lower proportion of deaths per case (Case Fatality Rate or CFR) exists for delta compared to alpha or beta.

I have omitted the other variants here because there were less than 500 total cases identified for each in the Table.


zarembka said...

The Delta data come from the recent cases, while the prior variants represent the older data (they have VERY few cases in the recent 28-day reporting period).

1. If patient care has been improving, then the data may be not be as meaningful as suggested.

2. The data do not dis-aggregate between the vaccinated and un-vaccinated: The earlier period having the earlier variants had a lower level of persons vaccinated in the U.K.

In other words, these data are not as meaningful as a quick reading might suggest.

If I understand the doctors at the U.S.-based FLCCC Alliance, they are very concerned about the Delta variant and would not want to minimize it.

Anonymous said...

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Meryl Nass, M.D. said...

I agree that FLCCC (esp. Paul Marik)has been quite concerned with recent increase in severity. From my perspective, the cause is unlikely to be the same delta variant that became dominant over the past 3 months. Something has changed, and the US method of assigning the term delta to cases based on a PCR test is designed not to pick up changes. You need real sequencing for that. So we do not know what it is, how extensive it is, etc.

As an intensivist Marik cares for ICU patients only--those that were not treated early. Early treatment is key. No one has indicated that the drugs are not working early. But I am concerned about the current ivermectin suppression, and am now advising patients to go on a Fareed-Tyson-like protocol and use HCQ as well, just in case.

ellen said...

Could less deaths from delta be because more are vaccinated now than w previous variants? Lessening severe illness and death are the things these shots actually do OK at, at least for some months, at who knows what cost, and quite imperfectly. But wouldn't that be a factor in comparing death rates w times no one / or less people, were vaccinated?

And I also wanted to mention the FLCCC docs, who say this moves much faster than previous variants. Higher viral load is being used as fear mongering of course, but it's still true. And, the FLCCC updated their prevention / early treatment protocols, to be stronger for delta.

This is quite a mess. I think Vanden Bossche was right, how we're messing with this is driving viral selection pressure to evade immunity, + whatever gain of function capacities this thing has.

We are interconnected, especially people sharing indoor spaces. I think it would really behoove fellow vaccine skeptics to acknowledge this this is serious, (even if doesn't kill, +20% end up with long covid ..). Of course early treatment is key. But, by its (probably lab altered) nature, this pathogen can be brutal, and its getting more infectious.

What I mean to say is it would behoove vaccine skeptics to understand why some people really don't want to get this thing ... and that we are interconnected. And it would behoove vaccine proponents to understand this is a new technology, there are unknowns, for personal health and viral evolutionary pressure, and to understand why some people don't want to put instructions to make part of this thing into their bodies.