Tuesday, April 6, 2021

Cases up 20% while Deaths down 24% since last week/ NY Times

From today's NYTimes, see the diagram below.  What do I see in the curve?  The slope downward from this last (3d) peak is too steep.  The epidemic curves of diseases generally rise steeply and fall more slowly as the virus runs out of susceptibles.  See the two prior peaks for an example.  In this case, deaths peaked right around Inauguration Day, and have fallen in a straight, steady line ever since. I suspect some type of manipulation led to such a steep fall on the way down.

Deaths are the most reliable number we have for the pandemic.  However, I've documented several ways that death numbers can be manipulated; in particular, CDC says they hand count all Covid deaths, while almost all other causes of death are machine counted.  Dr. Scott Jensen, who was a Minnesota state Senator and now is running for governor, was involved with a handcount of Minnesota deaths ascribed to Covid, and found the number was about 28% too high.

In any event, this curve should reassure you that things are not so dire as claimed.  Deaths are almost down to the lowest level seen between the two prior peaks. Cases are down a bit as well on April 7. 

Update April 7:  The NY Times ruined the graph.   I tried taking a screenshot and also going through Tor to upload it but neither has worked.  Hopefully, once I learn Wordpress, these issues will resolve.

April 8 Update, per the NY Times (7 day moving averages):

Cases are up by 14%

Deaths are down by 31%, 

and the NYT tells us that this number "includes many deaths from unspecified days"

The pandemic is on its way out.  Avoid the vaccines if you can. The case numbers, most of which are due to screening asymptomatic people at their employment or in schools, are essentially meaningless because the test accuracy is poor and false positives are common.


Anonymous said...

What a horror show, these half-baked and untested vaccines. One of your hardest hitting posts. Thank you.

Jeff Prager said...

Thank you for ALL of your posts.

Jeff Prager