Thursday, March 25, 2021

Herd Immunity Is Near, Despite Fauci’s Denial/ WSJ

His estimate that it’ll take a 70% to 85% vaccination rate ignores those who have already been infected.

by Marty Makary, MD

Anthony Fauci has been saying that the country needs to vaccinate 70% to 85% of the population to reach herd immunity from Covid-19. But he inexplicably ignores natural immunity. If you account for previous infections, herd immunity is likely close at hand.

Data from the California Department of Public Health, released earlier this month, show that while only 8.7% of the state’s population has ever tested positive for Covid-19, at least 38.5% of the population has antibodies against the novel coronavirus. Those numbers are from Jan. 30 to Feb. 20. Adjusting for cases between now and then, and accounting for the amount of time it takes for the body to make antibodies, we can estimate that as many as half of Californians have natural immunity today.

The same report found that 45% of people in Los Angeles had Covid-19 antibodies. Again, the number can only be higher today. Between “half and two-thirds of our population has antibodies in it now,” due to Covid exposure or vaccination, Mayor Eric Garcetti said Sunday on “Face the Nation.” That would explain why cases in Los Angeles are down 95% in the past 11 weeks and the positivity rate among those tested is now 1.7%.

Undercounting or removing the many Americans with natural immunity from any tally of herd immunity is a scientific error of omission. When people wonder why President Biden talks about limiting Fourth of July gatherings, it’s because his most prominent medical adviser has dismissed the contribution of natural immunity, artificially extending the timeline.

Many physicians believe that vaccinated immunity will prove more durable than natural immunity. I agree, and I think everyone should get vaccinated. But after a year of millions of Covid-19 cases in the U.S., it’s clear that reinfections are rare. Natural immunity is real and shouldn’t be ignored.

Dr. Fauci’s vaccination-only path to herd immunity has significantly influenced the national conversation. KNBC-TV in Los Angeles has a county-by-county vaccine tracker showing a bar graph of the percentage of Californians vaccinated, with the zone 70% to 85% labeled “herd immunity.” Currently, it’s at 26%. The false construct does create a greater urgency for everyone to get vaccinated. But it also creates false justification for continued excessive restrictions on freedom. And it raises the possibility that authorities are misallocating the limited vaccine supply by failing to direct it toward people without natural antibodies.

Rochelle Walensky, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, has joined Dr. Fauci in playing down natural immunity. In a Feb. 17 interview with the Journal of the American Medical Association, she suggested that up to 20% of the population might have had Covid-19. A study of antibody prevalence published soon after noted that 14% of New Yorkers had antibodies in September, before the state’s fall and winter surge. According to the more recent California data, Dr. Walensky underestimated the prevalence of natural immunity by half.

Some experts claim they don’t talk about natural immunity because we shouldn’t trust it. But a recent Public Health England study found that less than 1% of 6,614 healthcare workers who had Covid-19 developed a reinfection within five months—even though many of them work with Covid patients. Other experts believe natural immunity is powerful. “Natural immunity after Covid-19 infection is likely lifelong, extrapolating from data on other coronaviruses that cause severe illness, SARS and MERS,” says Monica Gandhi, an infectious-disease physician and professor at the University of California.

Dr. Fauci has said that we don’t have good data on natural immunity. That is largely because his own National Institutes of Health has done little to answer this and other important clinical questions. The NIH and CDC, which together receive more than $40 billion a year from taxpayers, should have focused on answering the most basic Covid-19 clinical questions that affect Americans. If we say we’re going to follow the science, then we need to be willing to consider all the data.

Dr. Makary is a professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Bloomberg School of Public Health and Carey School of Business. He is chief medical adviser to Sesame Care and author of “The Price We Pay.”

[I have a suspicion that Makary's was induced to add thes words in order to get his Op-Ed published:  "Many physicians believe that vaccinated immunity will prove more durable than natural immunity. I agree..." It doesn't really fit with the rest of the piece. Perhaps this is the best you can expect in the age of cancel culture?


Anonymous said...

The Bill Gates controlled Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization (GAVI) actually has direct control of the WHO. GAVI signed the WHO constitution as if it’s a sovereign nation, and was actually granted Swiss “Qualified Diplomatic Immunity”. All nations who sign the WHO constitution, “members” , are REQUIRED to follow in their home countries whatever dictates are issued by WHO. Citizens of those countries have no idea that their rights have been signed away by their government.

Thus, Bill Gates, who has no medical training, is himself DICTATING healthcare policy for the entire world, by virtue of his control of WHO. Gates has invested massively in vaccine technology. His WHO pushes the world not towards cleaner air and water or better quality food to improve our innate immune system. Rather, the WHO under Gates redefines what constitutes a “pandemic”, redefines herd immunity as only coming from vaccines, and mandates the flawed PCR test as the only valid way to identify Covid19. All seemingly designed to push up the value of his vaccine investments. Fauci/CDC also have a financial interest in vaccines, so they “prostate” themselves to Bill’s desires - vaccine efficacy and injury be dammed.

Dr Chris King said...

"Many physicians believe that vaccinated immunity will prove more durable than natural immunity. I agree, and I think everyone should get vaccinated."

Really? On what is this opinion based? And why is it at odds with the next two sentences:

"But after a year of millions of Covid-19 cases in the U.S., it’s clear that reinfections are rare. Natural immunity is real and shouldn’t be ignored."

Following the science is only a good strategy when the scientists are following it themselves.

A second concern: are vaccine reactions, and perhaps antibody-dependent enhancement of disease as well, more likely in those who already have antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 through natural exposure (even asymptomatic infection)? I think I read somewhere that this is the case, but I haven't delved deeply into it myself yet.

What is the point of vaccinating those who are already immune to the virus?

Why don't we start promoting 'proof of immunity' as a reasonable alternative to 'proof of vaccination'? I'd be willing to bet that many more people would get on board, myself included.

Michelle said...

I am a bit confused. Did you write this or did Dr Makary? The author recommended to get the immunization. I have been reading your posts for atleast 15 years and you really know your stuff. I am just wondering if you do recommend the immunization?

Meryl Nass, M.D. said...

I did not write this. I agree with most of it, but disagree about the better immunity from a vaccine. He is completely wrong about that.

I do not support any of the experimental vaccines, especially because their short-term side effects are being covered up by CDC, and nobody knows what their longterm side effects will be.

I don't like playing Russian roulette with my body or my patients' bodies.

Michelle said...

Thank you for the reply. That is what I thought so that's why I wanted to clarify this. I do completely agree. My son came to you with adverse reactions to the anthrax vaccine and have done a lot of research since. Thank you for all the valuable information and research you have done.

Anonymous said...

How do we really know proof of vaccination translates into proof of immunity? Is there a titer like what is used for MMR and Hep B?

Bill said...

I guess what’s confusing to me is the “I believe everyone should vaccinated” line or how vaccine immunity is stronger than regular immunity.. even the quote from Monica Ghandi - if you look at her Twitter page it’s all pro vaccine.

A tweet from her today “ It is key to look at demographic differences in who is hospitalized now (e.g. being the unvaccinated) to understand the power of the vaccines; I tweeted yesterday how hospitalization rates in US falling dramatically in those vaccinated (>65). Vaccinate fast”

Dr. Nass also shared a tweet from Dr. Eric Osgood who is completely in favor of getting the vaccine and thinks everyone should get one (including people who have had covid).

There seems to be many ven diagrams going on at the same time. I still have not made up my mind on the vaccine and feel pretty smack dab in the middle of this.

I would love to see a debate between someone like Dr. Nass and Monica Ghandi or Dr. Osgood. I want to see two people who are both critical of big pharma, lockdowns but have opposing views on the vaccines.
I’d pay to hear that.

Meryl Nass, M.D. said...

I'd love to debate the vaccines.

There is so much to write about, I have not put together enough on the vaccine problems.

And CDC is hiding the evidence it has; I need to write about that too.

Possibly because of a political blowup between the EU and UK over the Astra-Zeneca Oxford DNA adenovirus vaccine, they seem to be identifying lots of adverse reactions from it. 1/100,000 vaccinated diagnosed with cavernous sinus thrombosis (aka cerebral venous sinus thrombosis), mostly women under 55, and several died. Several cases of disseminated intravascular coagulation in healthy people, which never happens, also likely to kill.

Many of my doctor friends love the vaccines. I think it is simply because they cannot conceive of FDA allowing products to be used that we know almost nothing about. They cannot believe that FDA set up the trials that way (with Fauci) as a CYA action. They do not understand the bureaucratic mentality, nor do they know about the criminal and negligent things that FDA routinely allows to occur.

How many know that Janet Woodcock (probably the next FDA Commissioner) was written up in the Lancet 20 years ago, by editor Richard Horton, for working behind the scenes to get a dangerous drug reapproved that had been taken off the market, lotronex. That was very dirty. Well documented.

Because of anthrax vaccine, I got to peek behind the curtain with many boxes of FDA documents that are not publicly available. Still, it took me many years to understand the banality of the evil that goes on at the federal public health agencies.

John said...

Glad to hear this Herd Immunity Is Near, WSJ information and that the asylum doors opening near tomorrow or there abouts?

Any comments on CO2 at over 400ppm, levels not seen for millions of years since the Pliocene era as geologists report?
Of no concern with wait and see for decades ,anything significant with levels continuing upwards into uncharted era except millions of years ago to think otherwise? Cheers

Anonymous said...

This was posted in March 2021, it's now Sept 2021, and we are still fighting for natural immunity to be recognized.

Sht is getting real. Last week Emperor Biden gave his most disturbing speech thus far, outlining his vax mandate plan for companies w/ 100+ employees.

Today was CA Governor Newsom's recall election. Whether he wins or "wins", CA better be ready for STHTF. I suspect the only reason CA hasn't been locked down yet is due to Newsom behaving himself right before the recall.

The "winner" will be announced momentarily. It will be a miracle if Newsom doesn't win, so brace yourself for more social distancing shenanigans and anti-science lockdowns.

Biden set the tone w his overreaching speed, I expect D-CA & D-NY to follow right behind.

I hope I'm wrong. But this might be when the gloves come off.