Monday, March 9, 2020

Protecting yourself from Covid-19/ Nass' recommendations



The new coronavirus spreads readily, like flu or cold viruses, but is much more likely to affect family members of someone already infected than others.  We Americans are not very good at protecting ourselves from cold and flu viruses.  Maybe we can learn some strategies that will help us avoid Covid-19, as well as helping to protect us from future respiratory viruses.

How does Covid spread?

1.  From coughing/sneezing and, less likely, even from someone breathing.  Large droplets from a cough travel up to 3 feet, while smaller droplets can travel up to 6 feet.  Staying more than 6 feet away from others offers pretty good protection.  Keeping the door closed when someone has the virus adds protection for others.  [CDC says stay 6' away and WHO says 3', fyi]

2.  Those droplets then land on all objects within range.  The virus can live more than a week on certain surfaces if left undisturbed.  When you touch those objects, which in medical jargon are called fomites, you have picked up the virus on your hand.

3.  Covid has also been found in urine and stool.  When you use a urinal or flush a toilet you may aerosolize some live virus.  Perhaps those who have Covid should put toilet seats down when they flush, and males should consider urinating while seated.  Keep bathroom surfaces very clean; use gloves when you wash them if possible.  Then wash your hands with soap and water after removing gloves.

We talked about where you can find Covid.  But how do you actually get it?

You touch your eyes, nose, mouth (possibly other mucus membranes) with an infected hand, or you inhale the virus.  Inhaling is thought to be the #1 source of infection. Handwashing as much as possible, and always when you first arrive home, is the best protection.  I worry about cuts on hands, especially from so much handwashing.  Feel free to use moisturizers to prevent cracking.

Where might Covid be lurking?

It may be on anything anyone touches.  Whenever you open a door, pick up an item in the grocery, use a phone or keyboard that you share, you could pick up Covid or another virus. 

So what is the solution?

You need to be in the habit of being in control of your hands.  Start practicing this technique right now, and don't stop till this outbreak is over.  DO NOT touch your face with your hands, unless you have just washed them.  Do less touching of your face, in general.  Maybe you can use a tissue, not a finger.

Barriers

Viruses and bacteria cannot pass through plastic.  They can pass through paper, but it is not easy for them.  Use barrier materials to open door knobs, pick up items in the grocery, etc.  This will reduce your exposure.  Wash hands once you return home.

What cleaning agents are effective at decontaminating Covid?

What CDC and EPA have done is to allow manufacturers to certify their own products as being effective for Covid-19.  No federal agencies, nor WHO or the British National Health Service discuss the results of environmental testing of Covid-19 on the infection control sections of their websites. Thus we do not know how long Covid-19 survives on various surfaces.  Nor do we know from any official testing which chemical decontaminants are effective. This is a big problem I will describe further, below. For the moment, all we have is a list of self-certified cleaning products, about which the EPA states, "Inclusion on this list does not constitute an endorsement by EPA." Here is the current list of manufacturer-certified products:


For most uses, 70% alcohol rub or diluted bleach (1/3 cup in a gallon of water, or 1000 ppm chlorine) are CDC-recommended.  The longer disinfectants stay wet on a surface, the better job they do.  So allow them to dry in place.

Cleaning agents related to benzalkonium chloride (quaternary ammonium compounds), or lower concentrations of alcohol and bleach, are thought to be ineffective.  Surfaces must be cleaned of visible dirt before disinfectants are used, because dirt, food, blood, etc. can inactivate the disinfectant and allow virus to persist, if not cleaned up first.

What did we learn from the 2003 SARS outbreak?

One group of French researchers studied SARS coronavirus viability on surfaces, and methods of decontamination.  They found that it took 5 weeks for the SARS virus, when dried on a clean glass petri dish, to lose viability.  They wrote: 


"In our hands, the human SARS-Coronavirus is the most resistant enveloped virus ever described. It takes 35 to 42 days to inactivate the virus by drying, and formaldehyde fumigation has no effect on the dried virus. This means that existing decontamination strategies cannot be extrapolated to emerging viruses and that the conditions for decontamination should be determined specifically for each new virus."

Are our public health agencies afraid to frighten us once again, and thus their silence on this issue of importance?  Or are they too incompetent to perform the necessary testing?  

Members of a police sanitation team spray disinfectant as a preventive measure against the spread of the coronavirus.
Also, be aware that the French authors used a higher concentration of sodium hypochlorite, 6400ppm, or about 6 times as concentrated a solution of bleach as what CDC recommends. They did not test other concentrations.

Masks

Masks should be placed on ill persons so they don’t expel droplets of virus any further than the mask.  Their masks are contaminated but protect others.  Healthcare workers wear N95 HEPA masks with a tight fit to screen out 95% of virus they might breath in while caring for affected patients.

Will a surgical/dust mask help you?  Probably a little, but it will get contaminated and could be more of a hazard than help at that point.  Who has boxes of masks?

The Chinese often use clear visors that cover their faces—what a good idea!  An easy to clean, reusable surface to cover your eyes, nose and mouth.  And you don't feel like you are suffocating when you wear one.  Consider this method of protection.

Remember, when we run out of gloves, plastic sheeting material can still be used as barrier protections where needed.  Duct tape and a plastic bag gives you a mitten that can protect you when you go shopping, if things get hairy. 

Sheltering inside

Buy dry goods and canned goods and have enough food for a month, just in case.  Make sure you have adequate cleaning supplies, paper goods and plastic products to get you through this. Buy very gentle bars of soap and moisturizer, download some movies, buy a scrabble set, and be prepared for cabin fever.

Laundering--you should use warm to hot water and a hot dryer to kill virus.

Good WHO guidelines are here: 

Saturday, March 7, 2020

COVID-19 new cases OUTSIDE of China



The chart above is from ZeroHedge

Wednesday, March 4, 2020

Infectivity, JHU stats and mortality estimates

Johns Hopkins is keeping track of COVID-19 cases internationally, in real time, here.

There have been 51,171 recovered cases and 3,254 deceased, for a 6% mortality rate.  This number should drop, I hope considerably, as we begin to identify more asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic cases.

Update 3/16/20:  Chinese mortality estimate is around 5.8%.

One hopeful piece of information is that spread has been mostly within families...suggesting infection requires a large inoculum size (a large number of viral particles) and may therefore be considerably less contagious for those with only casual contact with cases.  We hope.

Update 3/5/20:  Spread might be high within families because they have genetic markers in common that either promote infection or lead to more severe infection.

Monday, March 2, 2020

What a public health agency should be doing now for COVID-19

1.  Diagnostic information.  Describe the specific features of the disease in the US (symptoms and signs) so doctors will be able to clinically distinguish most COVID-19 cases from other respiratory infections like colds, influenza, pneumonias, allowing them to isolate, quarantine, treat respiratory infections more sensibly.  CDC and NIH say they will publish articles on this soon.  

Excuse me, but CDC and NIH leaders are not academics whose job is to publish in academic journals:  they are public servants with government websites devoted to dealing with COVID.  As soon as they find information useful to professionals or the public, it should immediately be posted on their websites.  And state health departments say the necessary information has been made available to CDC.

This poster, used by health systems throughout the US to distinguish influenza, colds and pertussis, is exactly what practitioners need -- with an extra column for COVID-19, so we can quickly differentiate likely and unlikely COVID cases.

2.  Decontamination.  Tell us how to clean different surfaces and how to eliminate virus on fomites.  With other coronaviruses, virus was viable after a week on some surfaces.  NYC says they will give schools a "deep cleaning."  What method will they use and who said it was effective?

CDC has P4/BSL4 labs where environmental studies can be safely conducted to answer this question.  The answer is crucial.  Yet the CDC website, even as of today, March 2, includes no information in its COVID infection control section (or anywhere else I could find) on environmental decontamination.  I was also unable to find this info, specific to COVID, on the WHO website.

3.  Testing.  Why did CDC restrict testing to under 1000 people total in the US through the end of last week?  It seems they did not trust their test, and restricted testing to people who had an extremely high risk of having the virus.  Which would presumably give fewer incorrect results.  This tactic led to lowballing cases.

Yet WHO had another test it shared with countries; China had tests; commercial and state labs wanted to develop tests.  Until the evening of 2/28/20, only CDC's test was allowed to be used in the US, and only if the patient met very restrictive clinical criteria and had a strong China connection. 

Being unable to test kept the US numbers down, for a time.  But it allowed cases to go undiagnosed and to spread within the community.  This no doubt has caused a much larger problem--undiagnosed cases--so we do not know where in the US there are current "hot spots" and Americans have been slower to respond vigorously.

We need real time rtPCR tests, antibody tests to determine prior infection, information on viral cultures and animal models to speed research.

4.  Treatment.  CDC and the rest of the federal establishment know that remdesivir may work, chloroquine phosphate may work (both used in China) and other drugs may be able to be repurposed for COVID.

We have been told 1 US person received remdesivir and others are being offered it in the US.

Why isn't the US conducting joint clinical trials with other nations (those who have tested and diagnosed many more cases) to explore the many possible drug options?  Where are these drugs made?  What efforts are made to get them into rapid production, especially remdesivir?  Where do the raw materials come from, and can they be produced in the US?  Apparently China is trialling over 200 drugs in small trials, as well as antiserum.

5.  Overwhelming of the medical system.  If cases continue to rise exponentially, we will exceed the available hospital beds, ventilators, doctors, nurses, masks, gowns, etc.

Coming up with a plan for how to respond at that future time is what we need from public health agencies and government.  Right now, we have enough of everything.  Is the US trying to rapidly manufacture masks, gloves, other PPE, ventilators, ECMO devices, train staff, and otherwise prepare for a medical armageddon?  To me, this is the real role of the public health system.

If so, what is being discussed behind closed doors?  What are the feds planning in terms of increasing healthcare resources?  In terms of rationing healthcare?