https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html
And many cases are asymptomatic. However, expect fewer cases as colleges are ending their spring semesters, and most required frequent testing of students and staff.
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases
| AVG. ON MAY 9 | 14-DAY CHANGE | TOTAL REPORTED | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cases | 41,012 | –30% | 32,735,745 |
| Tests | 1,109,433 | — | — |
| Hospitalized | 39,072 | –13% | — |
| Deaths | 667 | –6% | 581,301 |
Do you think this decline is because of the vaccines? Or because of less testing or even natural immunity? All of the above?
ReplyDeleteSeems like with only 34% fully vaccinated that the vaccines can't take all the credit here like the media wants. Curious to what you think.
I have no faith in the case numbers. If the testing cycle thresholds are too high, there will be an abundance of false positives, which probably explains the so-called asymptomatic cases. Then there are the presumptive cases, where no testing is done, but the patients are assumed to be a Covid case; which could have been flu or a rhinovirus, not Covid.
ReplyDeleteI also don't trust the death numbers. Did the patient die from Covid or with Covid? Apparently it doesn't matter, which just pads the numbers even more. And had we focused on early treatment, we never would have seen the high hospitalization rate; our officials never would have had the nerve to lockdown our citizens, taking away their civil rights; never would have so badly damaged our economy; never would have mistreated our children, by isolating them and denying them an education. I could go on, but it's too depressing.
Now our overlords want forced vaccination or lose more civil rights. What criminals.
My opinion on why the numbers are down is that it is multifactorial:
ReplyDeletea. warmer weather, more time outside, more Vit D conversion in skin
b. more people getting appropriate treatment, reducing infectivity
c. 150 million Americans with at least 1 vaccine dose. Vaccine is probably 60-70% effective overall
d. 100 million Americans with natural immunity (recovered, per Makary at JHU)
e. College semesters finishing, so weekly or twice weekly testing of asymptomatics in college is ended
f. With fewer susceptibles around, fewer people seek testing
g. I think the CT was turned down after WHO's advice in Dec and Jan, but I cannot prove it, leading to fewer false positives. I think this is a major cause of the sudden steep drop that started around Jan 12.
h. Cases now occur sporadically, one at a time, rather than in large clusters at once, due to high levels of population immunity
These are just the reasons I can think of off the bat. There are probably more.
Thanks. Could be exciting that the virus is finally tampering down.. Fingers crossed. And if we reach herd immunity before me and my family are coerced into getting a vaccine, then I will be very happy.
ReplyDeleteAlso you believe vaccine is 60-75% effective overall? I did not know this. Are you holding off getting it because of its safety not because of its effectiveness? I'm still not sure on its effectiveness. And also because early treatment is now more of a thing for covid.
ReplyDeleteI would think that most 'places'/labs would have followed the 'leader' fauci and lowered the CT, as in the game 'Smon says do this. Simon says do that.' I would think he purposely directed this CT lowering in order that the vaccines appear very effective. You have already said you'd not take part in an experiment (with totally unknown future ramifications.) So, perhaps folks/society HAVE gained an apparent reduction in transmission, even though trials did not PROVE it would prevent spread.
ReplyDeleteMy wonder is: How much of the panic of 'hospitals full,' be very afraid, everybody's going to get it!' is/was justified and and how much just a media creation of a false reality? HAS the incidence been as high/higher than a regular flu year? I thought someone/ you? said the severity is 3-4/2-3 times worse than a regular flu, which also surprised me. Guess that's maybe just because most people did not have access to early therapeutics, though, right? It need NOT have been more severe, I suspect. (?) And, we'll probably never know, as you've said before on other aspects, so you don't need to answer these wonderings.:)